Jordan’s Islamists may expose their own Achilles’ heel
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Jordan last week held its 20th parliamentary elections, which saw the largest number of voters in the country’s history with 1.68 million, up from 1.38 million in 2020.
The increase in the number of voters has been attributed largely to recent reforms emanating from the recommendations of the Royal Committee to Modernize the Political System. Among these reforms, a new law served to revamp and regularize political parties to meet much higher standards, such as increased women and youth inclusion in their leadership positions.
By May 2023, 38 political parties had been registered and they began strategizing to compete over 138 parliamentary seats, divided — as per the new elections law — between 41 dedicated for parties through a general national district and 97 held for 18 local districts.
With 41 seats secured, political parties campaigned heavily within the local districts to maximize their gains. Indeed, they ended up winning 73 seats at the local level, meaning 83 percent of the next parliament will be members of a political party.
Of these parties, there was arguably no bigger winner in the elections than the Islamists, which some observers perplexedly saw as a surprise. Over the past 11 months, Islamist parties have dominated the streets, hijacking Jordanians’ frustration over the ongoing war in Gaza, as the Israel-Palestine conflict was always going to feature heavily in this electoral campaign.
It is therefore not a surprise that Islamists now directly occupy 29 percent of parliament, as the Islamic Action Front won 31 seats, thanks to nearly half a million votes. The National Islamist Party won seven seats and Al-Ard Al-Mubaraka Party won two more.
Along with 24 independent members and 18 leftists, and as parties begin to coalesce, Islamists could gain a majority that would enable them to dictate the legislative scene over the next four years, starting by pressuring the new Prime Minister Jafar Hassan and his imminent government.
Opposite the Islamists are Al-Mithaq and Eradah, two centrist parties spearheading efforts to preserve the political scene from major changes. The two parties won 49 seats, 30 of which were won by Al-Mithaq, headed by the former speaker of the house Ahmad Al-Safadi.
They face a sizable challenge if they want to form a majority coalition. While Al-Ittihad Al-Watani Party also leans centrally, Taqaddum and Azm are two important wildcards and their 14 seats could shift the needle one way or the other.
Between the Islamists and centrists, it is worth analyzing what exactly is at stake. When it comes to public confidence, the outgoing parliament accumulated critically low approval ratings despite passing more than 30 laws that 65 percent of Jordanians agreed with, according to a May 2024 poll by NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions.
The next parliament is likely to enjoy higher confidence rates, at least during the first few months. The extent to which it will be sustained hinges on the parliament’s ability to tackle aspects long viewed as untouchable, such as Jordan’s relations with Israel.
While a centrist-majority parliament is likely to leave most laws intact, under an Islamist-majority legislature, the 1994 Wadi Araba peace treaty between Jordan and Israel is expected to be debated heavily. Islamist lawmakers are likely to call for its termination, along with all diplomatic, political and economic relations.
According to NAMA’s polls, there is near-unanimous support among Jordanians for cutting diplomatic relations with Israel, yet 42 percent are still in favor of keeping the peace treaty, the highest recorded percentage on this matter. While canceling the peace treaty is not likely to materialize due to geostrategic factors, the same cannot be said for economic ties, as most Jordanians do not approve of existing or potential economic dealings with Israel, including those on water and energy.
Nevertheless, there have been overly exaggerated concerns about the implications of the Islamists’ sizable presence in parliament. Some factors mean that, even if they managed to form an advantageous coalition in parliament, the outcome may not be as troubling as anticipated.
First, there is substantiated evidence of Islamists underperforming when assuming decision-making positions. Whether in Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon or even in Gaza, Islamist parties have rarely delivered on their promises. Instead, corruption and economic issues, among others, generally worsen and outweigh their populist narratives.
Islamist parties have dominated the streets, hijacking Jordanians’ frustration over the ongoing war in Gaza.
Mohammed Abu Dalhoum
Second, NAMA’s research on the ideologies of Jordanian political parties show marginal differences between Islamists and centrists. In interviewing party leaders on 42 policy issues, Islamists and centrists appear quite similar. They both lean slightly to the left on the economic axis, with only 4 percentage points between the two. As for the social axis, they both appear identically authoritarian, with a mere single percentage point difference.
Therefore, the heavy presence of Islamists in Jordan’s new parliament may just prove to be their own Achilles’ heel, not Jordan’s. The similarities between Islamists and centrists could foresee a cohesive, harmonious legislature. In that case, Islamists are likely to lose support for failing to bring anything new. On the other hand, if Islamists end up presenting themselves differently in Jordan than elsewhere in the region, then we could see a gridlocked parliament, at which point they are also likely to lose support due to their lack of efficacy in delivering on their promises.
- Mohammed Abu Dalhoum is the president of MENAACTION and a senior research analyst at NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions.
